BCS Playoffs?

Yes it is that time of year again... every Tom, Dick and Harry come out of the woodwork and attempt to solve the Bowl Championship Series, and create a playoff..... Here is my idea.

I would start with the 11 conference champions, then add 5 at large teams, and then rank the teams 1-16 and go from there. The first 3 rounds would be on campus sites, the finals would be in Pasadena, California at the Rose Bowl Stadium.

Here is my bracket:

11 Conference Champions (in alphabetical order by conference):
ACC- Clemson 10-3 (6-2)
Big 12- Oklahoma State 11-1 (8-1)
Big East- West Virginia 9-3 (5-2)
Big Ten- Wisconsin 11-2 (6-2)
C-USA- Southern Miss 11-2 (6-2)
MAC- Northern Illinois 10-3 (7-1)
MWC- TCU 10-2 (7-0)
Pac 12- Oregon 11-2 (8-1)
SEC- LSU 13-0 (8-0)
Sun Belt- Arkansas State 10-2 (8-0)
WAC- Louisiana Tech 8-4 (6-1)

5 At Large Berths
SEC- Alabama 11-1 (7-1)
Pac 12- Stanford 11-1 (8-1)
C-USA- Houston 12-1 (8-0)
SEC- Arkansas 10-2 (6-2)
MWC- Boise State 11-1 (6-1)

First 2 Out: Virginia Tech, Michigan State
Next 3 Out: South Carolina, Michigan, Oklahoma

Bracket:

#16 Louisiana Tech (WAC Champ) @ #1 LSU (SEC Champ)
#9 Wisconsin (Big 10 Champ) @ #8 Boise State (At Large)

#13 Southern Miss (C-USA Champ) @ #4 Stanford (At Large)
#12 West Virginia (Big East Champ) @ #5 Houston (At Large)

#11 Clemson (ACC Champ) @ #6 Oregon (Pac 12 Champ)
#14 Northern Illinois (MAC Champ) @ #3 Alabama (At Large)

#10 TCU (MWC Champ) @ #7 Arkansas (At Large)
#15 Arkansas State (Sun Belt Champ) @ #2 Oklahoma State (Big 12 Champ)

Conference Champion Rankings
#1 LSU (SEC)
#2 Oklahoma State (Big 12)
#6 Oregon (Pac 12)
#9 Wisconsin (Big 10)
#10 TCU (MWC)
#11 Clemson (ACC)
#12 West Virginia (Big East)
#13 Southern Miss (C-USA)
#14 Northern Illinois (MAC)
#15 Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
#16 Louisiana Tech (WAC)

At-Large Rankings
#3 Alabama (SEC)
#4 Stanford (Pac 12)
#5 Houston (C-USA)
#7 Arkansas (SEC)
#8 Boise State (MWC)

By the way, make sure to read Death to the BCS by Dan Wetzel, et al, it is a fantastic book, and outlines what is wrong with the BCS and how to solve it. There is also a 2011 version out now.

What makes a Rivalry?

A buddy of mine and I got into a friendly argument (as we often do) over what a rivalry is. It stemmed from going to Pittsburgh to see the Pirates play, and he said that the Phillies and Pirates were rivals, I said that it was a fake rivalry that the media creates because the teams do not play each other very often, and are so far apart in the standings. He said a rivalry is a rivalry, and then the argument (as it often does) went downhill from there.

Today is the start of Interleague play in Major League Baseball, and if you go MLB.com you will see an article talking about how these match ups create drama and intrigue. First I want to look at these match ups from a neutral perspective, and the define a rivalry once and for all.

First highlight games by MLB:

Reds-Indians (Showdown of Ohio)- While both teams are in the same state and leading their divisions, that is the only thing that interests me in this series. It would be like the Phillies and Cardinals playing from earlier this week- interesting, has some drama, but still a long way to go.

Cubs-Red Sox in Fenway for the first time since 1918- no interest whatsoever.

Rangers-Phillies- "Could be a preview of the World Series" is not something that interests me as I think Texas will falter in the ALCS. Although the pitching match ups could be interesting (Lee in Texas)

Athletics-Giants- just because they are close does not make them rivals

Cardinals-Royals- see above

The Rest- non hyped games by MLB.com
DET-PIT
NYM-NYY
WSH-BAL
HOU-TOR
TB-FLA
LAD-CWS
MIN-ARI
ATL-LAA
SEA-SD
OAK-SF
NL Game: COL-MIL

Of the above collection- Mets-Yankees is the only game remotely interesting but the Mets suck and I really don't want to watch a bad team play.

While MLB needs to create interest by having these 'rivalries' it just makes them look week and only interested in pandering for attention. Interleague is a cool concept, you get to see different matchups and see teams in different parks. But they do not create rivalries.

To define a rivalry, I think it needs the following criteria:
1. Teams need to be in the same division
(Exception- Team A knocks Team B out of the playoffs for at least 2 years straight then the rivalry exists only until the star players have left the teams)
2. Within in the same state/province- but only if the cities do not like each other
Example: Hamilton-Toronto in the CFL or TOR-OTT in the NHL
3. Have similar paths to success (meaning one team cannot always suck and one team cannot always be good, they need to suck or be good at around the same time)
4. Both teams need to win around the same number of games against each other (relative to number of games played against each other all time)
5. Needs to be some bad blood between the fans and/or (preferably and) the players
6. Media does not need to hype the series for the fan bases because the game is already circled on the calendar and the energy is going to be crazy.

Certain exceptions to these rivalries
1. If the two teams frequently meet in the playoffs, or are competing for division crown every year, rule 2 can be waived (NY-CHI in the NBA in the 90s, NYY-BOS in the MLB, TOR-MTL in the NHL).
2. If a new alignment takes a rival out of a division rule one can be waved (TB-GB in the NHL- Tampa got moved to the NFC South, Green Bay to the NFC North when the NFL expanded to 32 teams- for a few years there was a strong rivalry between the two teams.

Examples of the Perfect Rivalry in Pro Sports
New York-Boston in the MLB
Toronto-Ottawa in the NHL
Chicago-Indiana in the NBA (90s)
Atlanta-Philadelphia in the MLB
Dallas-Washington in the NFL (80s)

Ranking of Rivalries in all sports
1. Duke-North Carolina in NCAA Basketball
2. New York-Boston in MLB
3. Chicago Bulls- Indiana Pacers in the NBA (1990s)
4. Dallas Cowboys- Pittsburgh Steelers (1970s)
5. UCLA-USC in NCAA Football
6. USC- Notre Dame in NCAA Football
7. Chicago Cubs- St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB
8. Army-Navy in NCAA Football
9. LeBron James (Cleveland and Miami) vs. Boston in the NBA
10. Canada vs. Russia in International Hockey

That is my opinion of course, but I think there are more real rivalries in the NCAA and between countries. Probably 11. would be Canada-USA in International Competition. But really there are lots of 'fake' rivalries out there that the media creates to help with ticket sales and have a story for the papers, and that is fine, but a true rivalry is rare and hard to find.

For the final time...Goodnight from St. Catharines

Readers;

On April 20 I handed in my final assignment for Sport Management and completed my course work at Brock University. After two days of careful thought here is my farewell to the city of St. Catharines:

For the past three years I have been attending Brock University for the Sport Management program, and as I take a break from cleaning out my room for the final time, I want to share some thoughts.

First off when I go home to fine fine town of Ancaster, ON, I often tell people that I have met some of the finest and smartest people in the world at Brock, and that speaks directly to the class of 2012-Sport Management. I want to thank the professors for their inspiring classes and their time. Especially Dr. Hyatt, Dr. Bradish, Dr. Chard, Dr. Spence, Dr. Mallen, Dr. McLean, Dr. Findlay, Dr. Stevens, Dr. Cousens, Dr. Kikulis and Scott McRoberts, this collection of professors are the ones I have had in my classes for the past three years and have been wonderful. I love their drop in whenever policy and chances are they will be able to help you (Dr. Hyatt especially who goes out of his way to help all Sport Management students). Also Charlene McLellan who is the best administrative assistant in the school and Stephanie Brooks who is the BEST academic adviser in the school and arguably the country.

Next the students who are currently finishing 3rd year, I am pleased to call you all friends and one day co-workers, as you as the collective are some the finest and smartest people I know. As well to the current graduating class, for welcoming me more than halfway into your education and making me feel a part of your year. It is something very difficult to do.

Also the staff at Recreation Services (Intramurals), who I call co-workers and friends, hopefully someone will replace Sean Mathe and myself as the Statler and Waldorf of the office next year, but you are all wonderful and have inspired many debates about college basketball. And to the boss Adam Byslma who allowed me to spread my wings while writing the soccer baseball rules (I hope that they work next year buddy).

The athletic department's sports information and marketing guru Shawn Whitely who does more for Athletics than anyone else and desperately needs about 3 more people to help him do his job. Without Shawn I would not have been the play by play voice of the Men's Hockey and Basketball team. Thank you sir.

Murray Nystrom, Men's Hockey Coach, thank you for your time and effort with the broadcasts and interviews. And of course the same of the OUA West coaches, but especially, the broadcasts favourite opposing coach Shawn Camp of Guelph.

Matt Prefontaine, Derek Sigsworth, Steven Lapointe, Chris Muldoon and Larry Miller are the wonderful people who spent their time with myself working on broadcasts for Hockey and Basketball, thank you for your efforts and input they were greatly appreciated.

Jared Wall- the person who has easily done the most for Brock Baseball and helped me this year with my work for the Baseball team.

Coach Jeff Lounsbury thank you for your efforts with the baseball team, he might be the finest recruiter in the OUA.

The past three years I have changed for the better, and it is not without some sadness that I say for the final time, Goodnight from St. Catharines.

NHL Playoff Predictions

Ok, predictions for the NHL Playoffs and the 1st round specifically, however I will try my best at going through the entire bracket as well.

Eastern Conference: 1st Round
(1) Washington vs. (8) New York Rangers
"The rangers had a homecoming in Harlem late last night" sings Bruce Springsteen to open his iconic song Jungleland, and it will be Jungleland for the Caps, they fall in 7 games, and the top seed falls in the opening round for the 2nd straight year. Too much Offense, not enough defense.
(8) New York Rangers 4-3

(2) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (7) Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres make another run through the playoffs, and I will take them to win this series because Philly has stumbled in, are 14-11-7 since February 1, and their opponent the Sabres have been soaring into the playoffs. Take Buffalo.
(7) Buffalo Sabres 4-2

(3) Boston Bruins vs. (6) Montreal Canadiens
Division Rivals, Chara, hatred, Pacioretty, this is playoff hockey, going to be brutal, low scoring affairs with lots of checks. But Montreal survives and advances
(6) Montreal Canadiens 4-2

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Tampa Bay Lightning
Pittsburgh without Crosby and Malkin are in trouble, TB has been electric recently, holding off Montreal for the 5 seed by 8 points, and they were 1 point away from each other in late March. Tampa rolls
(5) Tampa Bay Lightning 4-1

Western Conference- 1st Round
(1) Vancouver vs. (8) Chicago
The Canucks have had their season ended by the Blackhawks the last two years, but they are the President's trophy winners this year and Luongo has been magnificent in the 60 games played. He will be rested and ready to go. Defending Champs go down.
(1) Vancouver Canucks 4-2

(2) San Jose vs. (7) Los Angeles
Don't know much about either of these left coast teams, but season series was Sharks 3-1-2 and Kings 3-3, so take the Sharks because they have the better winning percentage.
(2) San Jose Sharks 4-3

(3) Detroit vs. (6) Phoenix
Detroit wins easily, HockeyTown is a tough place to play and Phoenix moves to Winnipeg or Quebec City next year due to lack of fan support. Seriously, their home games are like neutral site games.
(3) Detroit Red Wings 4-0

(4) Anaheim vs. (5) Nashville
The Predators are looking for their first win in postseason history, they get it and then some. Once they get the first win the momentum will carry them, but they lose the first 2 first.
(5) Nashville Predators 4-2

Eastern Conference Semi Finals
(5) Tampa Bay vs. (8) New York Rangers
Bruce can't save them this time, Tampa is more defensively minded, but this is a close series, as NY wins at Madison Soup Garden.
(5) Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3

(6) Montreal vs. (7) Buffalo
This will be a great series, two very similar teams going at it, should be a fantastic series for those that like offensive hockey. Price vs. Miller would be a great goalie match up, but Montreal squeaks it out at home because Buffalo will be in tough on the road after a 4 day wait between series.
(6) Montreal Canadiens 4-2

Western Conference Semi Finals
(1) Vancouver vs. (5) Nashville
Vancouver rolls, the former Molson Hockey House is rocking and the Canucks play defense extremely well, take the Canucks because of the goaltending and the defense.
(1) Vancouver Canucks 4-2

(2) San Jose vs. (3) Detroit
Detroit wins the first on the road, then wins in 6 as they roll at home.
(3) Detroit Red Wings 4-2

Conference Finals
(5) Tampa Bay vs. (6) Montreal
Montreal with the help of a great home crowd and solid defense, the Canadiens win with solid goal tending and a decent powerplay.
Montreal Canadiens 4-1

(1) Vancouver vs. (3) Detroit
The pedigree of Detroit is so much higher than Vancouver, Hockeytown will be rocking, but VanCity has the better team. Take Vancouver.
Vancouver Canucks 4-3

Stanley Cup
Montreal vs. Vancouver
All Canadian final, going to be unreal, in fact the whole country might just shutdown for this two week party. In the end, Montreal hoists the cup.
Montreal 4-3

-20? Why lengthening golf courses doesn't work

The PGA Tour is experiencing a surge of low scores. The idea that the best golfers in the world would be tamed by simply lengthening the holes on golf courses is laughable, but it has been happening since 1999, when Tiger Woods started dominating the field on a weekly basis. The thought of the time was to "Tiger Proof" the course, making it harder for the game's greatest player to score low. I want to look at the different strategies implemented by the PGA Tour and their golf courses, and then what I think will work the best.

First the PGA Tour and their respective golf courses started lengthening the courses. This had one main effect, the rest of the field could not hit the ball as far, and Tiger had a bigger advantage. Then technology took over, and drivers became more powerful, but an odd thing happened, while the field could drive the ball longer, Tiger was still winning. It wasn't until he had swing issues did the golf world catch up to Tiger. Technology can always make the ball go farther, the goal should be to put a premium on accuracy.

Then the PGA Tour last year started regulating grooves in their golf clubs. While there has been an effect on accuracy and playing from the rough, the scores have not been lowered. A paper on this was presented at last weekends MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, the authors found this correlation between winning and driving accuracy, however did not discuss scores.

Finally the third idea and so far the most successful was the USGAifying of golf courses. Yearly the US Open in parkland courses have the winning scores near par. How they do it is by narrowing fairways, rolling the fairways, lengthening the rough, double rolling the greens (making them like concrete) and then sometimes not watering the greens and fairways towards the end of the week. While this is not the best presentation of a course, and would be difficult to play every week, it is entertaining once a year. But really the USGA goes too far sometimes, for example in 2006 and 2007 the winning score was +5. That might be too far. Their other strategy is turning borderline par 5s into long par 4s.

My suggestion is simple, too lower scores, the PGA Tour and their golf courses need to narrow the fairways, and lengthen the rough by about .5 of an inch. Also the need to length the space between the teeth of the rakes for sandtraps. This will make hitting the ball into the rough and the sandtrap a penalty and put a premium on accuracy.

I have had enough of -20 winning scores, something between -5 and -12 each week should be the goal.

The course that the players raved about in recent years was the Hamilton Golf and Country Club in Ancaster, ON. In 2003 the winning score was -8 in 2003 and -14 in 2006. In 2003 the rough was longer, the fairways were narrow and the course put a premium on accuracy.

My suggestion will help winning scores go up and make golf more fun to watch on tv, instead of every golfer getting birdie and birdie.

NFL Playoffs Predictions

Well it has been a long time since I have written anything on the blog. School will do that too you, you know.

Anyway, it is time to take a look at the NFL Playoffs.

AFC Wild Card
(6) New York Jets @ (3) Indianapolis Colts
The Jets can sure talk, they are really good at talking. Rex Ryan gets up and yaps on and on and on, but where are the results? Colts playing at home, with Manning, repeat of the 2010 AFC Championship game. Same result
Colts win, but it is close 20-17

(5) Baltimore Ravens @ (4) Kansas City Chiefs
The Ravens really should be hosting this game, they are 12-4 after all and their defense while not as potent as it was before, is still good. The Chiefs keep it close, but ultimatley cannot hang on.
Ravens win- 35-21

NFC Wild Card
(5) New Orleans Saints @ (4) Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans rolls, the Seahawks are the first sub .500 team to make the playoffs in a full NFL season in history. While they have the home field advantage and New Orleans has NEVER won a road playoff game, there is always a first.
Defending World Champs win 45-7

(6) Green Bay Packers @ (3) Philadelphia Eagles
Vick attempts to redeem himself fully. He was the first quarterback to win a playoff game in Lambeau field in 2003 with the Falcons, and the Eagles are pretty good team. While the game is in Philly, the Eagles are better, but not much better.
Eagles win 17-14.

AFC Divisional Playoffs
(3) Indianapolis Colts @ (2) Pittsburgh Steelers
This is the classic match up that we all want, Manning vs. Rothlisberger, Colts Offense vs. Steelers Defense. I really want Indy to win the WC week so we can see this game. This one is going to be close, a tough game, but Indianapolis is off the mark on offense and that will hurt them in Steel City.
Pittsburgh wins 14-13 on a last second TD.

(5) Baltimore Ravesn @ (1) New England Patriots
The Pats have lost at home ONCE since November 30, 2008 and that was in the Playoffs last year against these Baltimore Ravens 33-14. However in the rematch on October 17 the Pats won at home 23-20 in OT. This is the rubber match, and the home team prevails. It is close, but the Pats move on.
New England 20-17.

NFC Divisional Playoffs
(5) New Orleans Saints @ (1) Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 7-1 at home, the ONLY home loss this season was too the Saints in Week 16, in a game they had to have. The road team has won the season series between these two, as Atlanta won in New Orleans. Take the road team again, Brees has some playoff magic, that Matt Ryan does not have...yet.
New Orleans 28-24.

(3) Philadelphia Eagles @ (2) Chicago Bears
Chicago might be the most up and down team to receive a bye in NFL History. The Bears have lost 5 games this year, 3 at home (to Seattle, Washington, and New England). While no one will blame them for the loss to New England (the overall #1 seed), the losses to Seattle and Washington on back to back weeks is hard to fathom. However Hester has been a force since returning punts again, and while the Eagles have a good defense, the Bears squeak one out just like in late November.
Chicago 35-31.

Championship Weekend
NFC
(5) New Orleans Saints @ (2) Chicago Bears
An unlikely NFC Championship if I ever saw one, but these two teams are the survivors from the playoffs. New Orleans having won 2 road games to get here, finally runs out of magic. The Bears in a cold one dominate on running and then stopping Reggie Bush and hitting Brees hard.
Bears win 35-10

AFC
(2) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (1) New England Patriots
On the other side, this is the likely AFC Championship that we all want to see, either that or the Colts @ Patriots, really we are not fussy as football fans. New England wins in a snow covered game that goes down as an INSTANT CLASSIC.
New England 28-21.

Super Bowl 45 (in Dallas)
Chicago vs. New England
The biggest upset of the day is Jerry Jones, he finds a way to get the attention on himself and the focus on the Dallas Cowboys. But then everyone turns away.

Seriously...fine...New England wins in a close game, the defenses are both excellent, but the New England offense on a quick track in Dallas is better than Chicago's. The Pats win but in true Patriot fashion on a last second field goal.
New England 30-28.

MLB Realignment by Payroll Follow up

Earlier this year, I proposed a new system for Major League Baseball. Where they create four divisions based on the payroll of each team.

The Top Division would have 12 teams and 4 playoff spots.
The Second Division would have 6 teams and 2 playoff spots.
The Third Division would have 6 teams and 1.5 playoff spots.
The Fourth Division would have 6 teams and 0.5 playoff spots.

Now that the regular season is over, here are my standings based on this proposal.
Top Division
1. Philadelphia Phillies 97-65
2. New York Yankees 95-67
3. Minnesota Twins 94-68
4. San Francisco Giants 92-70
Spots 5-12 are OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS
5. Boston Red Sox 89-73
6. Chicago White Sox 88-74
7. Detroit Tigers 81-81
8. Anaheim Angels 80-82
9. Los Angeles Dodgers 80-82
10. New York Mets 79-83
11. Chicago Cubs 75-87
12. Seattle Mariners 61-101

Second Division
1. Atlanta Braves 91-71
2. St. Louis Cardinals 86-76
Spots 3-6 are OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS
3. Colorado Rockies 83-79
4. Milwaukee Brewers 77-85
5. Houston Astros 76-86
6. Baltimore Orioles 66-96

Third Division
1. Tampa Bay Rays 96-66
2. Cincinnati Reds 91-71
Spots 3-6 are OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS
3. Toronto Blue Jays 85-77
4. Washington Nationals 69-93
5. Cleveland Indians 69-93
6. Kansas City Royals 67-95

Fourth Division
T1. San Diego Padres 90-72
T1. Texas Rangers 90-72
Spots 3-6 are OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS
3. Oakland Athletics 81-81
4. Florida Marlins 80-82
5. Arizona Diamondbacks 65-97
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 57-105

Ok, so first off, there is a one game playoff for the top seed in the 4th division:
San Diego vs. Texas

Opening Round- Best of 3
Cincinnati (Home Field) vs. San Diego or Texas

Quarter Finals- Best of 5
Philadelphia (Home Field) vs. San Francisco
New York Yankees (Home Field) vs. Minnesota

St. Louis (Home Field) vs. Tampa Bay
Cincinnati/San Diego/Texas vs. Atlanta (Home Field)

While the Current System has the following match ups
American League
Texas vs. Tampa Bay (Home Field)
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota (Home Field)
National League
Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia (Home Field)
Atlanta vs. San Francisco (Home Field)

So it is a little bit different, which is better? That is for you too decide.